Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas Pipeline Projects in Pakistan

S. Mubin, G. Mubin

Abstract


In order to cater for its high energy demand, Pakistan is planning to import natural gas through pipelines from neighboring countries. For fully utilizing the imported gas, providing it to end customers, the infrastructure of gas pipeline needs to be developed. Therefore, huge investment has been done and proposed in this sector in coming future. Considering geological, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country, there is added risk of earthquake, landslides and floods. Due to current geopolitical situation there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism in the country. Instable Government policies, high rate of inflation, rapid change in material prices are also important risk factors. All these factors make the situation very complex in quantifying the risk especially for a project in which the risk impact factor rises exponentially in case of risk occurrence. In this paper, most appropriate risk classification is made based on technological, organizational, political, natural climatic, security and environmental risk factors. Effort has been made to device a simpler risk management methodology to analyze and manage risks of gas pipeline project. In the proposed risk management model Monte Carlo simulation has been used to identify critical risks.

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References


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